关键词: 脑出血; 死亡率; 影响因素; 预测模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the prognostic factors and model of early outcome (30-day mortality) inpatients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH).Methods We prospectively collected the clinical data of 300 consecutive patients admittedfor SICH. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determineindependent predictors and prognostic model of early mortality.Results There were five significant and independent predictors of early mortality, GlasgowComa Scale(GCS) score(X8, OR 2.046, 95%CI 1.138-3.679), National Institutes of Health StrokeScale(NIHSS) score(X15, OR 2.590, 95%CI 1.226-5.470), complications(X16, OR 4.820, 95%CI1.877-12.377), dysphagia(X17, OR 7.912, 95%CI 1.280-48.901), and midline shifting(X22, OR13.969, 95%CI 4.760-40.990). The prognostic model was Logit(P )=-12.005 + 0.716X8 + 0.952X15 +1.573X16+2.068X17 + 2.637X22, with correct rate 87.3%.Conclusion GCS score, NIHSS score, complications, dysphagia, and midline shifting areimportant predictors of early mortality in patients with SICH.

Key words: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage(SICH); Mortality; Prognostic factor; Predicting model