Objective To explore the value of ASTRAL score in predicting prognosis of patients with the
different gender, different infarction parts and disease severity at 3-months after onset of acute
ischemic stroke (AIS), and compare with the value of predicting of Preadmission Comorbidities,
Level of Consciousness, Age, Neurologic Deficit (PLAN) score, and Totaled Health Risks in
Vascular Events (THRIVE) score.
Methods Related baseline data were recorded and ASTRAL score, PLAN score and THRIVE score
were calculated respectively based on different groups according to gender, infarction area, and
disease severity, to compare the predictive value of ASTRAL score with PLAN score and THRIVE
score in patients with AIS at three months after onset. Model discrimination was quantified by
calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared their
predictive value by conducting Z test.
Results (1) A total of 513 patients with AIS were enrolled, including 309 cases of male and 204
cases of female; Infarction parts: there were 305 cases of anterior circulation infarction, 153 cases
of posterior, and 55 cases of mixed anterior and posterior; Illness severity: there were 260 cases of
minor strokes, and 253 cases of non-minor stroke. (2) The AUC of ASTRAL predicting 3 months
prognosis in all patients is 0.845. AUC in male group was 0.804, and in female group was 0.878,
which showed the Z value of 1.86 (P >0.05); the AUC of predicting anterior, posterior and mixed
circulation group were 0.843, 0.814 and 0.857 respectively, with Z values <1.98 (P >0.05). The AUC
of predicting minor stroke and non-minor stroke were 0.714 and 0.855 respectively, and the Z value
was 4.03 (P =0.000). The AUC of ASTRAL score, PLAN score and THRIVE score predicting all
patients were 0.845, 0.783, 0.740, respectively, with Z value >1.98 (P values were 0.000, 0.010, 0.000).
Conclusion ASTRAL score could predict 3 months prognosis in patients with AIS, which performs
better in predicting minor stroke than PLAN score and THRIVE score.