Trends and Predictive Analysis of the Burden of Stroke Deaths Attributable to High LDL-C in China from 1990 to 2021
ZHANG Yongqing, LI Na, GAO Yili, QIN Jiawen, YU Haiping, ZHAO Tingting
2025, 20(4):
447-456.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5765.2025.04.008
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Objective To analyze the trends in the burden of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in China from 1990 to 2021, explore the effects of age, period, and cohort factors, and predict the future changes in the burden of death.
Methods Using the data from the global burden of disease database 2021 on stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in Chinese adults aged≥20 years from 1990 to 2021, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of age-standardized death rates over time. Through the age-period-cohort model, the age, period, and cohort effects of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in China were estimated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in China from 2022 to 2030.
Results Compared with 1990, the number and rate of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in China have significantly increased in 2021, while the age-standardized death rates has decreased. In 2021, the total number of deaths for the whole population, males, and females were 300 100, 170 500, and 129 500, respectively, which were 161.87%, 187.04%, and 134.60% higher than those in 1990. The mortality rates in 2021 were 21.08/100 000, 23.42/100 000, and 18.64/100 000, respectively, which were 116.65%, 139.22%, and 92.56% higher than those in 1990. The age-standardized death rates in 2021 were 15.93/100 000, 20.96/100 000, and 12.36/100 000, with estimated annual percentage changes of -0.43%, -0.02%, and -0.88%, respectively (all P<0.05). The results of the Joinpoint regression model showed that from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized death rates of stroke attributable to high LDL-C in China showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in general, and the age-standardized death rates were higher in males than in females. The results of the age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the stroke mortality rates attributable to high LDL-C generally increased with age, with RR ranging from 0.028 to 12.214 in the whole population, 0.027 to 14.661 in males, and 0.032 to 15.258 in females. The period effect showed an increasing trend, with RR ranging from 0.677 to 1.418 in the whole population, 0.623 to 1.532 in males, and 0.750 to 1.298 in females. The cohort effect showed a decreasing trend, with RR ranging from 0.213 to 4.210 in the whole population, 0.221 to 3.637 in males, and 0.170 to 3.978 in females. The results of the ARIMA model predicted that from 2022 to 2030, the number and rate of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C in China’s whole population, males, and females will continue to rise. The age-standardized death rates for males will show an increasing trend, but the age-standardized death rates for the whole population and females will remain steady.
Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the burden of stroke deaths attributable to high LDL-C has been increasing in China, and the burden of death is heavier in males than in females. Mortality increases with age, grows over periods, and decreases by birth cohorts. The burden of death is expected to remain heavy for the foreseeable future.