Analysis of Influencing Factors of Early Depressive Symptoms after Acute Ischemic Stroke and Construction of a Multimodal Prediction Model
LUO Dongliang, JIA Liyan, LIU Wei
2025, 20(12):
1539-1546.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5765.2025.12.009
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Objective To explore the influencing factors of early depressive symptoms after acute ischemic stroke and construct a prediction model.
Methods A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted. The study included patients with acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University from July 2023 to July 2024, had their first onset of the disease, were diagnosed by cranial MRI, were admitted within 48 hours of onset, had a mini-mental state examination score≥15 points, and had complete clinical and follow-up data. The baseline data, assessment of early depressive symptoms after acute ischemic stroke, laboratory examination, stroke-related scale scores, and imaging data were collected. Based on the Hamilton depression scale (HAMD) scores of outpatient follow-up at (30±3) days after stroke, patients were divided into the depressive symptom group and the non-depressive symptom group. R 4.3.0 software was used to compare the data differences between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent predictors of early depressive symptoms after acute ischemic stroke. Backward stepwise regression was applied to determine the final variables for constructing the prediction model. The model’s performance was evaluated using the ROC curve.
Results A total of 211 patients with acute ischemic stroke were ultimately included in this study, with 110 patients (52.13%) in the non-depressive symptom group and 101 patients (47.87%) in the depressive symptom group. Compared with the non-depressive symptom group, the depressive symptom group had lower LDL-C and red blood cell count, but higher admission C-reactive protein, admission NIHSS score, mRS score, Hamilton anxiety scale (HAMA) score, HAMD score, and discharge NIHSS score (all P<0.05). Imaging analysis showed that the depressive symptom group had a higher proportion of multiple infarctions and infarctions in the frontal lobe and thalamus (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that admission C-reactive protein, admission NIHSS score, mRS score, HAMD score, frontal lobe infarction, and multiple infarctions were independent risk factors for early depressive symptoms after acute ischemic stroke (all P<0.05). Discharge NIHSS score was an independent protective factor, while red blood cell count and HAMA score were potential protective and risk factors, respectively. The prediction model constructed based on these factors demonstrated an AUC of 0.923 (95%CI 0.888-0.959). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a χ2 value of 8.244 (P=0.41). At the optimal cutoff value of 0.763 determined by the maximum Youden index, the model achieved a sensitivity of 88.1% and a specificity of 88.2%.
Conclusions The admission C-reactive protein, admission NIHSS score, mRS score, HAMD score, discharge NIHSS score, frontal lobe infarction, and multiple infarctions are important influencing factors for early depressive symptoms after acute ischemic stroke. The prediction model constructed based on these factors has good clinical discrimination efficiency.