关键词: 脑血管病; 死亡; 趋势分析

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the trend of the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Jing’an District of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014, and to provide scientific evidence for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the death surveillance data of Jing'an District residents of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014, to calculate the crude mortality, standardized mortality rate, and to explore the trend of mortality and average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases. Results The crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases was 16 560/105, the standardized mortality rate was 12 054/105, and there is no significant difference between genders. There was an increasing tendency of crude mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 1975 to 2014 (χ 2=10.58, P <0.01), and the standardized mortality rate decreased linearly. Take time-series linear trend fitting with AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t =32.13, P <0.01). The trend of average age of death of cerebrovascular diseases increased linearly.Take time-series linear trend fitting with AUTOREG process of SAS system. The regression model is meaningful(t =260.46, P <0.01). Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the incidence of cerebral vascular disease will continue to increase. But the high disability rate and high recurrence rate of cerebral vascular disease, and the survival age rising year after year indicates that they will bring a heavy burden of disease. Therefore, the government should further strengthen the first grade prevention of cerebral vascular disease, and the average expectancy life will be improved, so the average health life.

Key words: Cerebrovascular diseases; Death; Trend analysis